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The Russo-Ukrainian War: Special Operations to Form Fronts

The Russia-Ukraine war has lasted for more than a year, and the formation of the front line is actually the result of the second phase of the Russian army’s “special military operation”. However, Western media described the first phase of the Russian army as a complete failure. According to their accounts, the Russian army started the campaign with an attempt to capture Kiev, the Ukrainian capital, but was routed by the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian army and was forced to withdraw from around Kiev and instead occupied several states along Ukraine’s Black Sea coast. , entered the second phase of the “special military operation”.

Military buffs, however, have found something odd about this narrative. While the Russians did suffer some losses during the siege of Kiev, they were not seriously hit. The strange thing is that the Russian army was close to Kiev at the end of February, but they chose the strategy of encircling without fighting and moving without attacking. What is even more puzzling is that since April 1, the Russian army has completely withdrawn from the area. How can this situation be explained?

Russian President Vladimir Putin has released a document offering a new explanation for the withdrawal of Russian troops around Kiev. Putin showed a first draft of an agreement between Russia and Ukraine brokered in secret by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan when he met with African leaders and representatives of missions. This agreement is called the “Ukrainian Permanent Neutrality and Security Treaty”, which has 18 articles, the core content of which is that Ukraine maintains a neutral status, that is, it will not join NATO.

After the secret negotiations in Istanbul on March 29, 2022, Russia and Ukraine agreed to start the withdrawal of troops. However, the Ukrainian government then tore up the agreement, leaving Russia feeling cheated. However, it should be noted that the agreement is only a preliminary draft and has not been officially approved. Therefore, the purpose of Russia’s release of this document may be to reveal Ukraine’s failure to keep its promises. The agreement was kept secret for more than a year and was only made public after the mediation of Chinese and South African delegations.

The content of the agreement raises some questions. First, whether there are key guarantor countries, such as China, the United States, the United Kingdom, and France, have obtained the first draft of the agreement. Second, the agreement mentions that Turkey maintains a neutral position and stops providing drones to Ukraine. This has sparked speculation about Turkey’s position and actions in the region.

The document released by Putin provides explanations for some of the problems of the Russia-Ukraine war, but it also raises more questions. The publication of this document will take time to answer the many complex questions in it. For example, why did Ukraine tear up the agreement? Has the sponsoring State really endorsed the agreement? Has Türkiye’s position really changed? All of these issues require further investigation and research in order to understand the Russo-Ukrainian War and the complexities behind it.